Impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Rainfall Variability on Rice Production in East Java during 2018–2025

Abstract

El Niño –Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the climate variability factors that can affect rainfall patterns and agricultural production systems . This study aimed to analyze the relationship between ENSO variability , rainfall , harvested area, and rice production in East Java during 2018–2025. The research used a quantitative descriptive method with secondary data obtained from the Meteorology , Climatology , and Geophysical Agency and the Central Bureau of Statistics . Data analysis was performed using Pearson correlation analysis to determine the relationship among variables . The results showed that ENSO had a very strong negative correlation with rainfall (r = -0.959; p < 0.01), indicating that stronger El Niño conditions were associated with lower rainfall . However , ENSO and rainfall did not show a significant direct relationship with rice production . Rice production showed a very strong positive correlation with harvested area (r = 0.979; p < 0.01), indicating that harvested area was the main factor associated with production changes during the observation period . These findings indicate that although ENSO strongly influences rainfall variability , its impact on rice production can be reduced by agricultural management factors such as irrigation systems , cultivation practices , adaptive varieties , and farmer adaptation strategies .